Post JCPOA

Diplomasi Koersif Amerika Serikat Vis-À-Vis Iran

  • Muhammad Halil Rahim Universitas Indonesia
Keywords: Amerika Serikat, diplomasi koersif, Iran, JCPOA, sanksi

Abstract

Tulisan ini menganalisis efektivitas kebijakan diplomasi koersif Amerika Serikat terhadap Iran yang dilakukan melalui penerapan sanksi pasca pengunduran diri dari kesepakatan multilateral ‘JCPOA’ pada tanggal 8 Mei 2018. Tidak puas dengan isi dari kesepakatan tersebut, pemerintah AS di bawah kepemimpinan Presiden Trump memutuskan untuk keluar secara unilateral dari kesepakatan tersebut dan dengan segera menerapkan sanksi penuh kepada Iran. Terlepas dari signifikansi kajian-kajian terdahulu mengenai sanksi AS terhadap Iran, penulis tidak menemukan kajian terdahulu yang memberikan pendekatan teoretis secara komprehensif terkait faktor-faktor yang dapat mendorong efektivitas sanksi AS. Secara khusus, penulis juga belum menemukan kajian terdahulu yang membahas efektivitas sanksi AS terhadap Iran pasca pengunduran diri secara unilateralnya dari JCPOA. Tulisan ini diharapkan dapat mengisi gap literatur tersebut dengan menganalisisnya menggunakan faktor-faktor penentu efektivitas sanksi yang berbasiskan teori (theory-driven research). Kerangka analisis yang penulis gunakan di dalam tulisan ini adalah teori diplomasi koersif yang dikembangkan oleh Tom Sauer yang penulis elaborasi ke dalam lima variabel utama yaitu tujuan, permintaan, ancaman, tekanan waktu, dan motivasi. Hasil tulisan ini mengindikasikan bahwa kebijakan diplomasi koersif yang diterapkan oleh AS sejauh ini belum efektif dalam menekan Iran karena AS belum melakukan perhitungan dan konsiderasi yang cukup matang terhadap lima faktor penentu tersebut.

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Published
2019-06-29
How to Cite
RahimM. H. (2019). Post JCPOA. Jurnal ICMES, 3(1), 27-52. https://doi.org/10.35748/jurnalicmes.v3i1.42