Post JCPOA
Diplomasi Koersif Amerika Serikat Vis-À-Vis Iran
Abstract
Tulisan ini menganalisis efektivitas kebijakan diplomasi koersif Amerika Serikat terhadap Iran yang dilakukan melalui penerapan sanksi pasca pengunduran diri dari kesepakatan multilateral ‘JCPOA’ pada tanggal 8 Mei 2018. Tidak puas dengan isi dari kesepakatan tersebut, pemerintah AS di bawah kepemimpinan Presiden Trump memutuskan untuk keluar secara unilateral dari kesepakatan tersebut dan dengan segera menerapkan sanksi penuh kepada Iran. Terlepas dari signifikansi kajian-kajian terdahulu mengenai sanksi AS terhadap Iran, penulis tidak menemukan kajian terdahulu yang memberikan pendekatan teoretis secara komprehensif terkait faktor-faktor yang dapat mendorong efektivitas sanksi AS. Secara khusus, penulis juga belum menemukan kajian terdahulu yang membahas efektivitas sanksi AS terhadap Iran pasca pengunduran diri secara unilateralnya dari JCPOA. Tulisan ini diharapkan dapat mengisi gap literatur tersebut dengan menganalisisnya menggunakan faktor-faktor penentu efektivitas sanksi yang berbasiskan teori (theory-driven research). Kerangka analisis yang penulis gunakan di dalam tulisan ini adalah teori diplomasi koersif yang dikembangkan oleh Tom Sauer yang penulis elaborasi ke dalam lima variabel utama yaitu tujuan, permintaan, ancaman, tekanan waktu, dan motivasi. Hasil tulisan ini mengindikasikan bahwa kebijakan diplomasi koersif yang diterapkan oleh AS sejauh ini belum efektif dalam menekan Iran karena AS belum melakukan perhitungan dan konsiderasi yang cukup matang terhadap lima faktor penentu tersebut.
References
Alam, A. (2011). Sanctioning Iran: Limits of Coercive Diplomacy. India Quarterly, [online] 67(1), 37–52. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1177/097492841006700103
Alikhani, H. (2000). Sanctioning Iran: Anatomy of a failed policy. London: I.B. Tauris.
Arms Control Association. (2019). International Support for the Iran Nuclear Deal. [online] Dalam: https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2018-05-09/international-support-iran- nuclear-deal [Diakses 27 Maret 2019]
Arms Control Association, (2019). Timeline of Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran. [online] Dalam: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheet/Timeline-of-Nuclear-Diplomacy-With-Iran [Diakses 18 Maret 2019]
Barston, R. (2013). Modern Diplomacy. London: Routledge
Bakahsh, S. (2009). The U.S. and Iran in Historical Perspective. [online] FPRI. Dalam: https://www.fpri.org/article/2009/09/the-u-s-and-iran-in-historical-perspective/ [Diakses 18 Maret 2019]
Bezhan, F. (2018). What's So Tough About The 'Toughest Ever' U.S. Sanctions On Iran?. RFERL, [online]. Dalam: https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-toughest-ever-u-s-sanctions- explainer/29585958.html [Diakses 18 Maret 2019]
Borszik, O. (2015). International sanctions against Iran and Tehran’s responses: political effects on the targeted regime. Contemporary Politics, [online] 22(1), 20–39. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2015.1112951
Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2010). The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [online] Dalam: https://www.csis.org/analysis/nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty [Diakses 15 April 2019]
Congressional Research Service. (2019). Iran Sanctions. [online] FAS. Dalam: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS20871.pdf [Diakses 18 Maret 2019]
Constantinou, C. M., In Kerr, P., & In Sharp, P. (2016). The SAGE handbook of diplomacy. Los Angeles, CA: SAGE.
Cooper, A. F., Heine, J., & Thakur, R. C. (2013). The Oxford handbook of modern diplomacy. Oxford, U.K: Oxford University Press. Hal.23-24
Cortright, D., Lopez, G. A., & Rowman and Littlefield. (2005). Smart sanctions: Targeting economic statecraft. Lanham etc.: Rowman & Littefield Publishers.
Esfandiary, D., & Fitzpatrick, M. (2011). Sanctions on Iran: Defining and Enabling ‘Success’. Survival, [online] 53(5), 143-156. Dalam:
https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2011.621639
Fayazmanesh, S. (2008). The United States and Iran: Sanctions, wars and the policy of dual containment. London: Routledge
Fitzpatrick, M. (January 01, 2017). Assessing the JCPOA. Adelphi Series, [online] 57, 19-60. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/19445571.2017.1555914
Fitzpatrick, M., Elleman, M., Izewicz, P. (2019). Uncertain future: The JCPOA and Iran's nuclear missile programmes. London : The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Arundel House.
France 24. (2019). US deploys aircraft carrier, bombers to 'send message' to Iran. [online] Dalam: https://www.france24.com/en/20190506-usa-deploys-aircraft-carrier- bombers-send-message-iran [Diakses 23 Mei 2019]
France Diplomatie. (2019). Joint statement on the creation of INSTEX. [online] Dalam: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/iran/events/article/joint-statement- on-the-creation-of-instex-the-special-purpose-vehicle-aimed-at
[Diakses 20 Maret 2019]
George, Alexander. (1991). Forceful Persuasion: Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
George, A. L., Hall, D. K., & Simons, W. E. (1971). The limits of coercive diplomacy: Laos, Cuba, Vietnam. Boston: Little, Brown.
Gordon, H. P. (2018). The Worst Deals Ever: What Trump Misses About the Art of Foreign Policy Negotiation. Foreign Affairs, [online]. Dalam: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-08-23/worst-deals-ever
[Diakses 18 Maret 2019]
Gulf Business. (2018). Saudi, UAE, Bahrain support US withdrawal from Iran deal. [online] Dalam: https://gulfbusiness.com/saudi-uae-support-us-withdrawal-from-iran-deal/ [Diakses 31 Mei 2019]
Herszenhorn, D. M. (2018). Europe vows to fight for Iran deal as US renews sanctions. Politico, [online]. Dalam: https://www.politico.eu/article/federica-mogherini-europe -vows-to-fight-for-iran-deal-as-us-donald-trump-renews-sanctions/ [Diakses 20 Maret 2019]
Hufbauer, G. C. (2009). Economic sanctions reconsidered. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
International Atomic Energy Agency. (2019). IAEA Board Report: Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). [online] Dalam: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran/iaea-and-iran-iaea-reports
[Diakses 27 Maret 2019]
International Atomic Energy Agency. (1970). Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). [online] Dalam: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/1970/ infcirc140.pdf [Diakses 7 April 2019]
Jakobsen, Peter Viggo. (1998). Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War. Palgrave Macmillan.
Kadkhodee, E., & Ghasemi Tari, Z. (2018). Otherising Iran in American political discourse: case study of a post-JCPOA senate hearing on Iran sanctions. Third World Quarterly, [online] 1–20. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1513786
Kozhanov, N. A. (2011). U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Iran: Undermined by External Factors. Middle East Policy, [online] 18, 144-160. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4967.2011.00504.x
Levs, J. (2012). A summary of sanctions against Iran. CNN, [online]. Dalam: https://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/23/world/meast/iran-sanctions-facts/index.html [Diakses 18 Maret 2019]
Majidpour, M. (2013). The Unintended Consequences of US-led Sanctions on Iranian Industries. Iranian Studies, [online] 46(1), 1–15. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/00210862.2012.740897
Maloney, S. (2010). Sanctioning Iran: If Only It Were So Simple. The Washington Quarterly, [online] 33(1), 131–147. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/01636600903430673
Manson, K. (2018). US demands exacting terms for new Iran nuclear treaty. Financial Times, [online] Dalam: https://www.ft.com/content/972765b8-5cfa-11e8-9334-2218e7146b04 [Diakses 25 April 2019]
Mousavian, S. H., & Mousavian, M. M. (2018). Building on the Iran nuclear deal for international peace and security. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, [online] 1:1, 169-192. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2017.1420373
Nakanishi, H. (2015). The Construction of the Sanctions Regime Against Iran: Political Dimensions of Unilateralism. In: Marossi, A., Bassett, M. (eds), Economic Sanctions under International Law: Unilateralism, Multilateralism, Legitimacy and Consequences. T.M.C. Asser Press, The Hague.
News 24. (2018). Netanyahu says 'fully supports' Trump's withdrawal from Iran deal. [online] Dalam: https://www.news24.com/World/News/netanyahu-says-fully-supports-trumps- withdrawal-from-iran-deal-20180508 [Diakses 20 Mei 2019]
Nusem, R. (2018). A Year of Readjustment: The Trump Administration’s New Policy on Israel and Iran. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, [online] 12(1), 55-64. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/23739770.2018.1466230
Pamuk, H., dan Gardner, T. (2018) U.S. renews Iran sanctions, grants oil waivers to China, seven others. Reuters, [online]. Dalam: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran- sanctions-oil/u-s-renews-iran-sanctions-grants-oil-waivers-to-china-seven-others- idUSKCN1NA0O8 [Diakses 20 Maret 2019]
Pamuk, H., dan Landay, J. (2019). Trump slaps new U.S. sanctions on Iran's metals industry. Reuters, [online]. Dalam: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran- sanctions/trump-slaps-new-us-sanctions-on-irans-metals-industry-idUSKCN1SE1SL [Diakses 9 Mei 2019]
Parasiliti, A. (2010). After Sanctions, Deter and Engage Iran. Survival, [online] 52(5), 13-20. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2010.522092
Pompeo, M., R. (2018). After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy. [online] U.S. Department of State. Dalam: https://www.state.gov/after-the-deal-a-new-iran-strategy/ [Diakses 25 April 2019]
Powell, R. (April 01, 1994). Anarchy in International Relations Theory: The Neorealist- Neoliberal Debate. International Organization, [online] 48, 2, 313-344. Dalam: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2706934
Press TV. (2019). Zarif: US bullies Europe, EU only expresses regret. [online] Dalam: https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/05/09/595533/Iran-European-Union-United- States-nuclear-Zarif [Diakses 15 Mei 2019]
Reuters. (2019). Rouhani says Iran will file legal case against U.S. for sanctions. [online] Dalam: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-sacntions/rouhani-says-iran-will- file-legal-case-against-u-s-for-sanctions-idUSKCN1QZ0PM [Diakses 23 Mei 2019]
Rizzo, S. (2018). Trump’s claim that Iran could build nuclear weapons in seven years. The Washington Post, [online]. Dalam: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact- checker/wp/2018/05/08/trumps-claim-that-iran-could-build-nuclear-weapons-in- seven-years/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.cfe580562512 [Diakses 5 April 2019]
Sauer, T. (January 01, 2007). Coercive Diplomacy by the EU: The Iranian Nuclear Weapons Crisis. Third World Quarterly, [online] 28, 3, 613-633. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590701200620
Schelling, T. C. (2008). Arms and influence. New Haven, Conn: Yale University Press.
Takeyh, R., & Maloney, S. (2011). The self-limiting success of Iran sanctions. Internasional Affairs, [online] 87(6), 1297–1312. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468- 2346.2011.01037.x
Torbat, A. E. (2005). Impacts of the US Trade and Financial Sanctions on Iran. World Economy, [online] 28, 407-434. Dalam: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467- 9701.2005.00671.x
United Nations Security Council. (2015). Resolution 2231 (2015). [online] Dalam: https://www.undocs.org/S/RES/2231(2015) [Diakses 31 Mei 2019]
U.S Department of The Treasury, (2018). U.S. Government Fully Re-Imposes Sanctions on the Iranian Regime As Part of Unprecedented U.S. Economic Pressure Campaign. [online] Dalam: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm541 [Diakses 20 Maret 2019]
Wallin, M. (2018). U.S. Military Bases and Facilities in the Middle East. American Security Project, [online]. Dalam: https://www.americansecurityproject.org/wp- content/uploads/2018/06/Ref-0213-US-Military-Bases-and-Facilities-Middle-East.pdf [Diakses 23 Mei 2019]
Wintour, P. (2019). Iran announces partial withdrawal from nuclear deal. The Guardian, [online]. Dalam: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/07/iran-to- announces-partial-withdrawal-from-nuclear-deal [Diakses 9 Mei 2019]
Wolfsthal, J., dan Smith, J. (2018). Pompeo’s Iran Plan Is a Pipe Dream. [online] Foreign Policy. Dalam: https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/21/pompeos-iran-nuclear-plan-is-a- pip-dream-trump/ [Diakses 25 April 2019]
Wroughton, L. dan Pamuk, H. (2019). U.S. to end all waivers on imports of Iranian oil, crude price jumps. Reuters, [online]. Dalam: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran- oil/us-to-end-all-waivers-on-imports-of-iranian-oil-crude-price-jumps- idUSKCN1RX0R1 [Diakses 2 Mei 2019]
