Resilience in The Ruins
Systems Thinking Approach to Economic Survival under Israeli Occupation in Palestine
Abstract
Amid the devastation caused by the Israeli occupation, the Palestinian economy faces profound systemic challenges, including trade restrictions, widespread unemployment, and collapsing infrastructure. This study adopts a systems thinking approach to explore economic survival under such conditions, bridging the gap in understanding the interconnected dynamics of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. Using causal loop diagrams, the analysis uncovers reinforcing loops of poverty, aid dependency, and infrastructure collapse alongside balancing loops driven by community resilience and policy interventions. Key findings reveal that trade restrictions have caused GDP contractions of up to 35 percent, while unemployment in Gaza has surged to 45 percent due to disrupted labor markets. Furthermore, only 33 percent of hospitals remain operational, exacerbating health crises and food insecurity. The study emphasizes the critical need for targeted infrastructure investments to restore market functionality and reduce unemployment by 15–20 percent, paired with community empowerment to strengthen resilience. The systems thinking framework offers policymakers actionable insights to navigate the socio-economic complexities of occupation and promote sustainable survival strategies for Palestine.
Downloads
References
Ajl, M. (2024) ‘Palestine and the Ends of Theory’, Middle East Critique, pp. 1–24. doi: 10.1080/19436149.2024.2404338.
Aziz, A. Z., Indah Sari, W. and Efendi, B. (2024) ‘Detection of the Palestine-Israel Conflict on Economic Stability in Indonesia’, International Journal of Research and Review, 11(8), pp. 415–423. doi: 10.52403/ijrr.20240845.
Bhowmick, R. and Khan, H. (2023) ‘Impact of Israel – Palestine Conflict on the Economy and Businesses of the Region’, SSRN Electronic Journal. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4759320.
Botta, A. (2010) The Palestinian economy and its trade pattern: Stylized facts and alternative modelling strategies. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29719/.
Calì, M. and Miaari, S. (2015) Economics in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Historical insights from quantitative analysis. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep50667.
Dana, T. (2020) ‘Localising the Economy as a Resistance Response: A Contribution to the “Resistance Economy” Debate in the Occupied Palestinian Territories’, Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 15(2), pp. 192–204. doi: 10.1177/1542316620925274.
Dana, T. (2021) Dominate and pacify: Contextualizing the political economy of the occupied Palestinian territories since 1967. Edited by A. Tartir, Tariq Dana, and T. Seidel. Cham: Springer International Publishing. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-68643-7.
Eddy Prahasta (2018) Pengantar Systems Thinking & Pemodelan Sistem Dinamis. Bandung: Informatika.
Farsakh, L. (2021) ‘JPS “Hidden Gems” and “Greatest Hits”: The Political Economy of Palestine and the Palestinians’, Journal of Palestine Studies, 50(1), pp. 106–111. doi: 10.1080/0377919X.2020.1842011.
Forough, M. (2023) ‘The 2023 Israeli-Palestinian war: A gift to China. GIGA Focus Nahost, 5’. doi: https://doi.org/10.57671/gfme-23052.
Hilal, J. (2007) Where Now for Palestine? The Demise of the Two-State Solution. London: Zed Books: London: Zed Books. Available at: https://www.academia.edu/116632444/Where_Now_for_Palestine_The_Demise_of_the_Two_State_Solution.
ILO (2024) Impact of the war in Gaza on the labour market and livelihoods in the occupied Palestinian territory: Bulletin No. 3.
Kubursi, A. and Naqib, F. (2008) ‘The Palestinian economy under occupation: Econocide’, The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 3(2), pp. 16–19. doi: 10.15355/epsj.3.2.16.
Kunsch, P. L., Theys, M. and Brans, J. P. (2007) ‘The importance of systems thinking in ethical and sustainable decision-making’, Central European Journal of Operations Research, 15(3), pp. 253–269. doi: 10.1007/s10100-007-0029-8.
Lustick, I. (2024) ‘Old and New Strategies for Exploiting Structural Change in Palestine/Israel: A Review Essay’, Palestine/Israel Review, 1(1), pp. 186–204. doi: 10.5325/pir.1.1.0008.
Mbah, R. E. et al. (2024) ‘The Social, Economic, and International Relations Impact of the 2023 Israel-Hamas War’, Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 11(2), pp. 224–236. doi: 10.14738/assrj.112.16499.
Meyland S. F. Wambrauw et al. (2024) ‘“In-Depth Analysis Of The Dynamics Post-Israel-Palestine Conflict 2023: Political, Economic, And Social Implications For The Future Of Israel”’, International Journal of Society Reviews (INJOSER), 2(1), p. 223~236. Available at: https://injoser.joln.org/index.php/123/article/view/56.
Naqib, F. . (2002) Economic aspects of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: The collapse of the Oslo accord. UNU/WIDER Discussion Paper No. 2002/100. Helsinki: United Nations University. Available at: https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:4880.
Naseem Abu Jamie (2017) ‘Future Prospects for Funding Strategies in Palestinian National Economy’, Chinese Business Review, 16(9), pp. 447-463. doi: 10.17265/1537-1506/2017.09.004.
Palestine in Figures 2023 (2024). Ramallah: Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. Available at: http://www.pcbs.gov.ps.
Panosetti, F. and Roudart, L. (2024) ‘Land struggle and Palestinian farmers’ livelihoods in the West Bank: between de-agrarianization and anti-colonial resistance’, The Journal of Peasant Studies, 51(5), pp. 1079–1101. doi: 10.1080/03066150.2023.2277748.
PCBS (2024) Palestine in Figures 2023. Ramallah: Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. Available at: http://www.pcbs.gov.ps.
Ricigliano, R. and Chigas, D. (2011) Systems thinking in conflict assessment: Concepts and application. United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Available at: https://library.alnap.org/help-library/systems-thinking-in-conflict-assesment-concepts-and-application.
Rusanti, E. et al. (2025) ‘Israel-Palestine conflict: Tracking global economic responses and fears’, Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business, 10(1), pp. 1–19. doi: https://doi.org/10.22515/shirkah.v10i1.718.
Sammamreh, R. et al. (2021) Prospects for development in Palestine: Weathering the storm, mobilizing together. Available at: https://mas.ps/en/publications/5946.html.
Sarasi, V., Yulianti, D. and Farras, J. I. (2021) Pengantar Berpikir Sistem dan Dinamika Sistem (Pengantar Berpikir Sistem dan Dinamika Sistem). 1st edn. Bengkulu: Yayasan Sahabat Alam Rafflesia.
Seidel, T. (2019) ‘Neoliberal Developments, National Consciousness, and Political Economies of Resistance in Palestine’, Interventions, 21(5), pp. 727–746. doi: 10.1080/1369801X.2019.1585921.
Taghdisi Rad, S. (2015) ‘Political Economy of Aid in Conflict: An Analysis of Pre- and Post-Intifada Donor Behaviour in the Occupied Palestinian Territories’, Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 4(1). doi: 10.5334/sta.fl.
Tartir, A., Dana, T. and Seidel, T. (2021) Political economy of Palestine: Critical, interdisciplinary, and decolonial perspectives. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77423-7.
UNHCR (2024) United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Six-month update report on the human rights situation in Gaza: 1 November 2023 to 30 April 2024. Available at: https://www.ohchr.org.
Vaggi, G., Missaglia, M. and Kattan, F. (2010) The Palestinian economy: Theoretical and practical challenges. Pavia: Pavia University Press. Available at: https://1lib.sk/book/1234727/3dc308/the-palestinian-economy-theoretical-and-practical-challenges-proceedings-of-the-conference-univer.html.
World Bank (2023) Impacts of the conflict in the Middle East on the Palestinian economy. World Bank. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org.
World Bank (2024) Economic monitoring report to the Ad-Hoc Liaison Committee: September update. Available at: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports.
World Health Organization (WHO) (2024) Public health situation analysis in the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt). Geneva: WHO. Available at: https://www.who.int.
Yoganandham, G. (2023) ‘Global economic recession and Hamas-Israel conflict: Assessing GDP growth, oil prices, and Palestinian economic development’, International Journal of All Research Education and Scientific Methods, 11(11), pp. 857–860. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375837141.
Yulianti, D., Elmin, M. and Prahasta, E. (2021) ‘Food Insecurity during a Pandemic: System Thinking-Based Analysis’, Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 22(2), pp. 181–191. doi: 10.23917/jep.v22i2.15394.
